RainbowStats Project Journal

How economic growth, Treasury yields and accumulated debt interact with the federal interest burden.

Warmer air, warmer water, migrating salmon—and why the observations refuse to forget yesterday.

What four reservoirs reveal about water, growth, and the limits of stored supply.

Four commodity networks, two snapshots, and a striking lesson: Europe’s move away from Russian energy was substantial—but it was neither uniform nor complete.

What five European countries reveal about the shifting structure of mineral-fuel trade before and after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

From two weeks in Wisconsin’s Northwoods to Chinook passage at Bonneville: a book, a new data source, and a first attempt to listen to the record.

Churchill’s vision, Putin’s strategy, and twenty-seven national interests

Replication the 2026 Nobel Piize in Economics

Merton scenarios, sovereign debt and market evidence: why central bankers and political policymakers should examine nonlinear risk, volatility and contingent claims.

Turning 1,000 Random Forest trees into economic ideas a person can examine

What old-school econometrics can teach us before we reach for Random Forest and Quantile Random Forest

Following yen positions, Treasury prices, funding demand, and financing spreads through the 2024 carry-trade reversal

Five scatter charts show how the gaps between related markets behaved around Liberation Day and two U.S. strikes on Iran. A visible break asks a useful question.

Data Centers and the Dynamics of an Investment Boom: Jobs, Population Movement, and Real Estate Prices

A RainbowStats examination of data-center construction, interest rates and inflation after Bill Ackman's September 2026 question to the Fed.

An August 2025 CPS wage distribution and a RainbowStats linear program show how payroll, staffing, output, and automation assumptions change minimum-wage scenarios.

Stress-testing the historical labor share with alternative accounting assumptions and constrained median regression.

An evidence-based six-to-nine-month farm input cost scenario using RainbowStats multivariate transfer functions and USDA expense data.

RainbowStats' first published-plugin conversation becomes a reproducible analysis of diesel exports, regional stocks, transport bottlenecks, and a linear program.

A RainbowStats demonstration using World Bank country cross sections to examine life expectancy, GDP per capita, and internet use.

Wage share, capital accumulation, and wages — testing a provocative proposition with U.S. data rather than stopping at the comparative statics.

A case study using BLS QCEW data and county regression residuals to identify trucking headquarters and freight hubs.

Eight different experiments with money, exchange rates and the price of capital.

A RainbowStats examination of unemployment, bank-loan delinquencies, COVID adjustment, reverse causality, and transfer functions.

A longer sample and controlled regression show that supply normalization—not faster growth—drove pandemic-era disinflation.

On the speed of labor reallocation -- descriptive evidence, clearly labeled

A short RainbowStats VAR test of foreign-born labor-force participation, technology production and real GDP per person.

A RainbowStats test of how freer access to productive work raises productivity, income and wealth—and how compounded wealth creates new opportunity.

A public-data replication of the New York Fed's R-star–labor-share nexus, expanded with capacity utilization and a VAR-derived DSGE representation.

A viral chart about men and women in the workforce leads to a closer RainbowStats examination of occupational employment and median weekly earnings.

A FRED-based decomposition of aggregate equity returns, retained corporate earnings, and Treasury bond returns—with a warning from the 1936–1938 undistributed-profits tax.

RainbowStats uses principal components instead of state dummy variables to explain county housing-price growth.

An exploratory analysis of how county house-price growth clustered across eight U.S. states in 2024.

A follow-up to the RainbowStats county mental-distress study showing how a Washington state fixed effect exposes omitted-variable bias in the pooled model.

A data-led examination of U.S.–Canada political rhetoric, markets, European trade, aerospace supply chains and energy interdependence.

A reflection on Kenneth Keniston, artificial intelligence, productivity, compensation, isolation and mental distress in Washington and Iowa counties.

Two historical echoes—from the pre-1914 world and the aftermath of 1929—help explain why the unresolved Great Financial Crisis still matters politically.

A RainbowStats reproduction of Instrument Hacking by Michael P. Keane, Timothy Neal, and Patrick Vu.

What the August 2026 jobs report looks like after stripping away the headline

How dummy variables can transform an attractive OLS fit into something spectacular—and why that spectacle may be a warning about overfitting rather than evidence of causation.

The feared UK collapse is hard to see against nearby European economies. The larger post-2010 story is that Britain, Germany, and a Northwest European control all grew more slowly than the United States.

The August Employment Situation arrives Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. We are publishing our number in advance—and showing every assumption behind it.

A RainbowStats comparison of OLS and tax-period LP median regression for the Gini index and labor share versus corporate profits relative to GNP.

AI investment, government borrowing, housing, and the shadow price of constrained capital

M2, bank reserves, Fed assets, and a net liquidity proxy tell different stories. Five charts and reproducible RainbowStats analysis explain why.

ECB data show a narrowing interest-rate premium on smaller euro-area corporate loans. Reproduce the charts with a six-line RainbowStats script.

Three state-level principal component analyses reveal distinct unemployment, participation, and GDP patterns using RainbowStats wildcards.

RainbowStats tests whether the Federal Reserve's dual mandate supports price stability using a transparent VAR and COVID-break regressions.

How scale, denominators, inequality, and regression choices change the story told by household wealth data.

A one-line RainbowStats script estimates eleven U.S. bilateral trade equations as a seemingly unrelated regression system.

A RainbowStats analysis of labor-market tightness, inflation persistence, matched comparisons and transfer-function lags.

Use RainbowStats to see the official component weights behind the CPI and PPI in one line of script.

A public-data threshold analysis of Federal Reserve reserve demand, inspired by Ricardo Lagos and Gastón Navarro.

From AI capital spending to commercial paper to bank lending—a reproducible public-data analysis.

Black-Scholes, characteristic functions, FFT option pricing and Variance Gamma skew.

How a 38.2-basis-point increase in bill rates can erase the annual savings from a full 100-basis-point decline in long-term rates—and why Treasury’s maturity choices put the Federal Reserve in a bind

A data-driven view of the future of energy: electrification, generation, storage, oil, emissions, grid constraints, and Seattle's hydropower advantage.

LW and HLW disagree materially about the neutral real interest rate, real-time revisions are large, and a market-based estimate contradicts both models.

Thoughts on the Legalization of Cannabis

Short Movie on the Panic of 1907; the imputus for the creation of the Federal Reserve

The Effect of Cannabis on Beer Sales

We test whether taxing excess corporate retained earnings could meaningfully reduce federal deficits—and find that even aggressive assumptions barely affect debt-to-GDP.

A data-driven look at the 2026 Strategic Petroleum Reserve exchange, its repayment economics, and the refining margins associated with released crude.

A Demonstration of Zellner's Seemingly Unrelated Regressions -- SUR

Using Three-Stage Least Squares to Analyze Money and Velocity

Political Analysis by Party and Presidency

SPX,M2 Money and Retained Earnings

Family Optimization of Wages, Time, and Dining

Linear Programming and the Family Budget

Is this Chart Signaling a Pause?

Looking and Market History as a Confluence of Cycles

Moment Diagram for Asset Returns - Skewness and Kurtosis

Gasoline and Savings

Using Principal Compoenents to estimate Recession Probability

S&P 500 Rise and Credit Spreads using the Merton Model

Explaining Fed Policy with Epicycles

Reconstructing retail sales using Fourier epicycles.

Business Formation and Employment Growth

Business Formation and Employment Growth

Dynamic Sankey Chart of US GDP by Industry

Structured Products

Modeling Oil Shock of the Iranian Hormuz Closure using RainbowStats